Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
